在这项工作中，我们使用变分推论来量化无线电星系分类的深度学习模型预测的不确定性程度。我们表明，当标记无线电星系时，个体测试样本的模型后差水平与人类不确定性相关。我们探讨了各种不同重量前沿的模型性能和不确定性校准，并表明稀疏事先产生更良好的校准不确定性估计。使用单个重量的后部分布，我们表明我们可以通过从最低信噪比（SNR）中除去权重来修剪30％的完全连接的层权重，而无需显着损失性能。我们证明，可以使用基于Fisher信息的排名来实现更大程度的修剪，但我们注意到两种修剪方法都会影响Failaroff-Riley I型和II型无线电星系的不确定性校准。最后，我们表明，与此领域的其他工作相比，我们经历了冷的后效，因此后部必须缩小后加权以实现良好的预测性能。我们检查是否调整成本函数以适应模型拼盘可以弥补此效果，但发现它不会产生显着差异。我们还研究了原则数据增强的效果，并发现这改善了基线，而且还没有弥补观察到的效果。我们将其解释为寒冷的后效，因为我们的培训样本过于有效的策划导致可能性拼盘，并将其提高到未来无线电银行分类的潜在问题。

Random graph models with community structure have been studied extensively in the literature. For both the problems of detecting and recovering community structure, an interesting landscape of statistical and computational phase transitions has emerged. A natural unanswered question is: might it be possible to infer properties of the community structure (for instance, the number and sizes of communities) even in situations where actually finding those communities is believed to be computationally hard? We show the answer is no. In particular, we consider certain hypothesis testing problems between models with different community structures, and we show (in the low-degree polynomial framework) that testing between two options is as hard as finding the communities. In addition, our methods give the first computational lower bounds for testing between two different `planted' distributions, whereas previous results have considered testing between a planted distribution and an i.i.d. `null' distribution.

Persuasion modeling is a key building block for conversational agents. Existing works in this direction are limited to analyzing textual dialogue corpus. We argue that visual signals also play an important role in understanding human persuasive behaviors. In this paper, we introduce the first multimodal dataset for modeling persuasion behaviors. Our dataset includes 199 dialogue transcriptions and videos captured in a multi-player social deduction game setting, 26,647 utterance level annotations of persuasion strategy, and game level annotations of deduction game outcomes. We provide extensive experiments to show how dialogue context and visual signals benefit persuasion strategy prediction. We also explore the generalization ability of language models for persuasion modeling and the role of persuasion strategies in predicting social deduction game outcomes. Our dataset, code, and models can be found at https://persuasion-deductiongame.socialai-data.org.

Whether based on models, training data or a combination, classifiers place (possibly complex) input data into one of a relatively small number of output categories. In this paper, we study the structure of the boundary--those points for which a neighbor is classified differently--in the context of an input space that is a graph, so that there is a concept of neighboring inputs, The scientific setting is a model-based naive Bayes classifier for DNA reads produced by Next Generation Sequencers. We show that the boundary is both large and complicated in structure. We create a new measure of uncertainty, called Neighbor Similarity, that compares the result for a point to the distribution of results for its neighbors. This measure not only tracks two inherent uncertainty measures for the Bayes classifier, but also can be implemented, at a computational cost, for classifiers without inherent measures of uncertainty.

Media bias can significantly impact the formation and development of opinions and sentiments in a population. It is thus important to study the emergence and development of partisan media and political polarization. However, it is challenging to quantitatively infer the ideological positions of media outlets. In this paper, we present a quantitative framework to infer both political bias and content quality of media outlets from text, and we illustrate this framework with empirical experiments with real-world data. We apply a bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to a data set of more than 1 million tweets to generate a two-dimensional ideological-bias and content-quality measurement for each tweet. We then infer a ``media-bias chart'' of (bias, quality) coordinates for the media outlets by integrating the (bias, quality) measurements of the tweets of the media outlets. We also apply a variety of baseline machine-learning methods, such as a naive-Bayes method and a support-vector machine (SVM), to infer the bias and quality values for each tweet. All of these baseline approaches are based on a bag-of-words approach. We find that the LSTM-network approach has the best performance of the examined methods. Our results illustrate the importance of leveraging word order into machine-learning methods in text analysis.

Studying animal movements is essential for effective wildlife conservation and conflict mitigation. For aerial movements, operational weather radars have become an indispensable data source in this respect. However, partial measurements, incomplete spatial coverage, and poor understanding of animal behaviours make it difficult to reconstruct complete spatio-temporal movement patterns from available radar data. We tackle this inverse problem by learning a mapping from high-dimensional radar measurements to low-dimensional latent representations using a convolutional encoder. Under the assumption that the latent system dynamics are well approximated by a locally linear Gaussian transition model, we perform efficient posterior estimation using the classical Kalman smoother. A convolutional decoder maps the inferred latent system states back to the physical space in which the known radar observation model can be applied, enabling fully unsupervised training. To encourage physical consistency, we additionally introduce a physics-informed loss term that leverages known mass conservation constraints. Our experiments on synthetic radar data show promising results in terms of reconstruction quality and data-efficiency.

美国的意识形态分裂在日常交流中变得越来越突出。因此，关于政治两极分化的许多研究，包括最近采取计算观点的许多努力。通过检测文本语料库中的政治偏见，可以尝试描述和辨别该文本的两极分性。从直觉上讲，命名的实体（即，用作名词的名词和短语）和文本中的标签经常带有有关政治观点的信息。例如，使用“支持选择”一词的人可能是自由的，而使用“亲生生命”一词的人可能是保守的。在本文中，我们试图揭示社交媒体文本数据中的政治极性，并通过将极性得分分配给实体和标签来量化这些极性。尽管这个想法很简单，但很难以可信赖的定量方式进行这种推论。关键挑战包括少数已知标签，连续的政治观点，以及在嵌入单词媒介中的极性得分和极性中性语义含义的保存。为了克服这些挑战，我们提出了极性感知的嵌入多任务学习（PEM）模型。该模型包括（1）自制的上下文保护任务，（2）基于注意力的推文级别的极性推导任务，以及（3）对抗性学习任务，可促进嵌入式的极性维度及其语义之间的独立性方面。我们的实验结果表明，我们的PEM模型可以成功学习极性感知的嵌入。我们检查了各种应用，从而证明了PEM模型的有效性。我们还讨论了我们的工作的重要局限性，并在将PEM模型应用于现实世界情景时的压力谨慎。

文档级信息提取（IE）任务最近开始使用端到端的神经网络技术对其句子级别的IE同行进行认真重新审视。但是，对方法的评估在许多维度上受到限制。特别是，Precision/Recell/F1分数通常报道，几乎没有关于模型造成的错误范围的见解。我们基于Kummerfeld和Klein（2013）的工作，为基于转换的框架提出了用于文档级事件和（N- ARY）关系提取的自动化错误分析的框架。我们采用我们的框架来比较来自三个域的数据集上的两种最先进的文档级模板填充方法；然后，为了衡量IE自30年前成立以来的进展，与MUC-4（1992）评估的四个系统相比。

随着人口的指数增长，至关重要的是保存自然资源，而不必损害足够的食物来养活所有人。这样做可以改善目前和后代的人的生计，健康和生态系统。可持续发展是联合国的范式，植根于食品，农作物，牲畜，森林，人口，甚至气体的排放。通过了解过去不同国家自然资源的总体使用，可以预测每个国家的需求。提出的解决方案包括使用统计回归模型实施机器学习系统，该模型可以预测将来在特定时期内每个国家 /地区短缺的顶级K产品。根据绝对误差和根平方误差的预测性能由于其低误差而显示出令人鼓舞的结果。该解决方案可以帮助组织和制造商了解满足全球需求所需的生产力和可持续性。

医学互联网是最近在医学方面的技术进步，对提供对健康指标的实时监控非常有帮助。本文提出了一种无创的物联网系统，该系统跟踪患者的情绪，尤其是患有自闭症谱系障碍的情绪。通过一些负担得起的传感器和云计算服务，对个人的心率进行监测和分析，以研究不同情绪每分钟汗水和心跳的变化的影响。在个人的正常休息条件下，建议的系统可以使用机器学习算法检测正确的情绪，其精度最高为92％。拟议方法的结果与医学物联网中最先进的解决方案相当。